Embraer's Long-Term Market Outlook

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Embraer's market outlook sees demand for 11,115 business jets over the next 10 years. The forecast weighs heavier for lighter jets -- with a projected 24 percent (more than 2,600) falling into Embraer's "very light" segment and another 21 percent (more than 2,300) filling in the ranks of "light." No larger jet categories (there are six) in Embraer's forecast claim more than 12 percent of the take. With all eyes on the yet-to-exist-in-the-real-world VLJ market, Embraer's projections are backed by current orders listed at more than 340. The number includes both the six-seat Phenom 100 and the eight-seat Phenom 300.

The smaller Phenom 100 might itself be a class leader when it comes to amenities that include a "refreshment center," a lavatory and high (relative) cabin volume. At $2.85 million per copy, the aircraft might also be near the top end of price (and runway length requirements). Deliveries of the Phenom 100, which was unveiled at NBAA in May 2005, are expected to begin in the second half of 2008. Embraer estimates delivery of 195 to 205 business aircraft for that year, including up to 20 Phenom 100s. In 2009 deliveries of the Phenom 300 are expected to begin, with the production rate of the Phenom 100 and Phenom 300 together projected to reach 120-150 units.