Volume 10, Number 14a -- March 29, 2004

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The Top Headlines From AVweb's Expanded, Illustrated News Coverage At AVweb's NewsWire.

YOUR FAA AT WORK...
The folks at the FAA were busy last week, creating a new safety office, filling a long-vacant executive post, and hosting the annual forecast conference. The common theme: Change is coming swift and sure, and the feds are racing to keep up with it. Secretary of Transportation Norm Mineta announced Thursday that the Department of Transportation will create a new Air Traffic Safety Oversight Service, an independent "second set of eyes" to ensure that changes in air traffic standards and procedures are safe. Also, more than a year after creating the post, the FAA has finally named its first chief financial officer, Ramesh Punwani. "We needed someone who could balance a $14 billion checkbook, and we found him," said FAA Administrator Marion Blakey. More...

...PREDICTING THE SHORT-TERM FUTURE...
At its annual forecast conference last week, the FAA unveiled its outlook for the next decade of general aviation and compiled its statistics for 2002-2003. Overall, the FAA expects a strong recovery to continue through 2005, with moderate sustained growth thereafter. The GA fleet will expand at a rate of 1.3 percent a year, adding more than 35,000 airplanes by 2015, the FAA said. The aging of the GA fleet is one factor preventing the growth of utilization rates for single-engine piston aircraft. Usage declines in aircraft more than 25 years old, the FAA says, and with each passing year a greater percentage of the single-engine fleet falls into that category. All categories of pilots continue to grow, the FAA says. About 58.7 percent of pilots today are instrument-rated, and that should grow to 61.6 percent by 2016. More...

... AND REVIEWING THE IMMEDIATE PAST
The FAA's numbers show a few bright spots despite the inescapable fact that times have been tough. Fractional-ownership programs are spurring turboprop and jet sales, new avionics are making it easier and safer to fly and "learn-to-fly" promotions are helping to bring new pilots into the fold, the FAA said. Helicopter pilots grew by almost 2 percent in 2003 over 2002. The fastest-growing aircraft types were experimental, with a 7.4-percent growth spurt, and turbine aircraft, which grew by 5.7 percent. The 10 fastest-growing general aviation airports, as ranked by the percentage increase over fiscal year 2002, grew from a combined total of 211,941 GA operations in 2002 to 374,238 in 2003, an increase of 76.6 percent. More...

FUEL PRICES CAUSE GA JITTERS
One factor that could crimp the FAA's cautiously rosy predictions for GA growth is the continuing rise in fuel prices. Prices at the pump last week hit an all-time high, the American Automobile Association reported, and aviation fuel prices are rising as well. If the climb continues, it could deflate aircraft sales, General Aviation Manufacturers Association President Ed Bolen told the FAA conference last week. "If fuel costs only go up 2 or 4 or 6 percent, that isn't make-or-break for a huge percentage of the population" that buys airplanes, Bolen said. "But if people say, 'I'm not as comfortable with the economy as I was six weeks ago because of fuel prices,' then [sales] could become a greater challenge." More...

...AS SUMMER FLYING SEASON NEARS...
As gas prices creep toward $2 per gallon for drivers in many parts of the country, many pilots are seeing local prices for 100LL inch closer to $3. Jet fuel prices are climbing, too, up more than 30 percent since September. The airlines are feeling the pinch, and last week, four carriers tacked on $5 fuel surcharges to every passenger ticket -- an option not open to GA pilots. Air shows are being squeezed, too. The Florida International Airshow, held last weekend, uses about 100,000 gallons of fuel, the show director told the local NBC2 News. The Thunderbirds alone burn more than 10,000 gallons, which at current prices, even with a volume discount, costs over 19,000 tax dollars. (So be sure you enjoy the show.) More...

...AND ALTERNATIVES REMAIN SCARCE
Concerns over gas prices and the fuel supply are nothing new. Aviators have worried for years that their supply of 100LL will dry up, or become pricey beyond reason. The U.S. GA piston fleet is currently surviving on one remaining producer that provides tetra-ethyl lead (TEL), the critical ingredient in 100LL, and that producer may not be committed to producing TEL after 2010, AOPA says. An acceptable unleaded replacement fuel for 100LL is not available, AOPA says, and it would take years to develop and approve a new fuel and have the FAA certify aircraft to use that fuel. More...

SPORT PILOT RULE TAKES A STEP OFF TRACK
As the 90-day deadline loomed for the federal Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to sign off on the FAA's Sport Pilot rule, the clock stopped last week when the FAA retracted the rule. "It's not unusual for us to go back and forth like this," the FAA's Sue Gardner told AVweb on Friday. "I'd expect this to take probably a couple of weeks." The OMB wanted answers to some concerns about the FAA's cost-benefit analysis, Gardner said. By retracting the rule and answering those questions, the FAA avoids letting the 90 days run out and then having the OMB reject it, in which case the FAA would have had to resubmit the rule and start over. Gardner said the FAA will post an update at its Web site soon, probably today. More...

NASA'S X-43A SCRAMJET FLIES AT 5,000 MPH, SHATTERS RECORDS
NASA's second X-43A hypersonic research aircraft flew successfully Saturday, the first time an air-breathing scramjet-powered aircraft has flown freely. The 12-foot-long unpiloted vehicle's scramjet -- a supersonic-combustion ramjet -- ignited and burned through its hydrogen fuel supply, which lasted about 10 seconds. The X-43A reached its test speed of Mach 7, and was ditched in the Pacific Ocean, as planned. "Today was a grand-slam in the bottom of the 12th," said Joel Sitz, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center's X-43A project manager. During NASA's first scramjet flight test, in June 2001, a rocket booster failed and the aircraft had to be destroyed. More...

CESSNA CEO LOBBIES FOR TAX-BREAK EXTENSION
Cessna CEO Russ Meyer told the FAA forecast conference in Washington last week that if the current "bonus depreciation" tax break, which expires at the end of this year, isn't at least partially extended, aircraft production schedules could be cut by 10 to 20 percent, and thousands of jobs could be lost, The Wichita Eagle reported Saturday. Meyer told the Eagle that he wasn't predicting definite cutbacks, though -- economic growth and new Cessna models could help maintain staff levels. But he'd be more comfortable if the tax break were extended, he said. Bonus depreciation has generated over $2 billion worth of new airplane orders since its enactment last May, according to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA). The tax break allows businesses to deduct up to 60 percent of the cost of commercial vehicles and equipment -- like business jets -- in the first year after the purchase, rather than the standard 20 percent. More...

GARMIN UNVEILS NEW TERRAIN-AWARE PORTABLE GPS
Garmin last week introduced its latest new gizmo, the GPSMAP 296 aviation handheld, which combines GPS position and altitude readouts with topographical maps. The color display gives pilots a clear depiction of potential terrain hazards, Garmin says. "Terrain awareness really sets the GPSMAP 296 apart from other aviation handheld devices," said Gary Kelley, Garmin's director of marketing, in a press release. The unit features a look-ahead warning function that alerts pilots to terrain or obstacle conflicts along the current flight path. The units go on sale next month at Sun 'n Fun, for $1,795. More...

NAVY PILOT EJECTS ON RUNWAY
A Navy pilot ejected from his F/A-18 Hornet on Friday about 2,000 feet into its takeoff roll at Raleigh-Durham International Airport, in North Carolina. The burning jet cartwheeled to a stop on the airfield. Emergency crews doused the flames, and nobody on the ground was hurt. The pilot suffered minor injuries. The jet was part of a two-aircraft flight on a routine cross-country training mission, and both jets had stopped at RDU to refuel. The other jet, which had taken off first, returned to the airport and landed safely. The Hornet was based at Oceana Naval Air Station in Virginia. More...

ULTRALIGHT-LED WHOOPING CRANES RETURN NORTH ON THEIR OWN
Last week, we told you the spring bird migration is underway, and to prove it, last Sunday the first of this year's migrating whooping cranes flew into Wisconsin from Florida, after a flight of about two weeks. The bird is one of five that flew to Florida back in 2001, the first year that ultralight aircraft were used to guide young cranes on their 1,200-mile southward migration. Operation Migration led two more groups of cranes south via ultralight in the fall of 2002 and 2003, for a total of 36 whooping cranes. Prior to 2001, whooping cranes, an endangered species, had not migrated over the eastern portion of North America in more than a century. More...

ON THE FLY...
NBAA has posted its report on the cost of restricting GA access to airspace and airports...
American Airlines cancelled a flight in Florida on Friday after a psychic called...
Three possible sitesnamed for a new GA airport near Cincinnati...
Searchers on Saturday found the wreck of a MiG-17 in a remote area of New Mexico...
On Friday, searchers located the wreckage of a Sikorsky S-76A that ditched Tuesday night...
The new digital radar system at PBI airport failed for four minutes last Thursday. More...

NEW ARTICLES AND FEATURES ON AVWEB
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COLUMNS

Pelican's Perch #79: The Air America Years (Part II)
AVweb's John Deakin did spend time in Southeast Asia as part of Air America, one of the "airlines" run by the CIA in the 1960s. Upon arriving in Asia, there was time for using old Link trainers, relaxing in hot springs, avoiding alcohol-pushers, and learning the reputation of The Compnay as John continues his story.

More...

READER FEEDBACK ON AVWEB'S NEWS COVERAGE AND FEATURE ARTICLES:
http://www.avweb.com/avmail/

Reader mail this week includes comments on the CVR at the U.N., birdstrike predictions, GPS orbits and more. More...

BUSINESS AVFLASH
HAVE YOU SIGNED UP yet for AVweb’s NO-COST twice monthly Business AVflash? Reporting on breaking news, Business AVflash also focuses on the companies, the products and the industry leaders that make headlines in the Business of Aviation. Business AVflash is a must read. Watch for a Business AVflash regular feature, TSA WATCH: GA IN THE "SPOTLIGHT". Sign up today at http://www.avweb.com/profile/ More...

SHORT FINAL...
Overheard while awaiting clearance at Wellington Airport, NZ, in poor, gusty weather...

Tower: XXX be advised the previous aircraft reports reduced wind shear on final, and decreasing crosswind.

XXX: "Oh, goody!" More...

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SPONSOR NEWS

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ARE YOU WEARING OUT AIRCRAFT TIRES FASTER THAN YOU THINK YOU SHOULD?
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AVflash is a twice-weekly summary of the latest aviation news, articles, products, features and events featured on AVweb, the Internet's Aviation Magazine and News Service. http://www.avweb.com

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Today's issue written by News Writer Mary Grady:
http://www.avweb.com/contact/authors.html#mgrady
AVweb's editorial team: http://avweb.com/contact/authors.html.

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