What’s In Aviation’s Future?

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In Brainteaser Quiz #200, we asked readers to forecast where aviation will be when Quiz #400 appears. Doing the math, with a new quiz every month, it works out to roughly a bunch of years from now, but well before Downtown Abbey wraps. A few suggested topics included: Will the FAA finally reform its arcane, pointless, stupid, medical-certification process? Will the FAA even exist or be replaced by Alibaba.gov? Will we be flying solar-powered LSAs or just sitting on the couch watching drone videos of flying cats? Will drones have eliminated the human race by then?

Readers were quick to respond with the insightful discussion we’ve come to expect from respondents whose identities remain anonymous, the hallmark of a sound, Web-based survey. One reader, we’ll call her Mel — because I think that’s an amusing name — summed up aviation’s future with a one-word response: “Silly.” Then, again, she may have been commenting on the overall survey premise.

Silly or not, other readers held expansive views of the future, with one saying, “We may be riding in pilotless airplanes,” and another being a bit more specific, citing future make and model: “We will all drive George Jetson craft!” Maybe not all of us, but it’s good to see that the futuristic G-crafts, much like T-crafts of yore, will still require a “driver.” [For you young ‘uns, “T-craft” are Taylorcraft; think 1940s, two-seat taildraggers still on duty as inexpensive LSAs.]

And this submitter opined that, whatever we fly, our reach might exceed ATC’s grasp: “Will you need an ATC clearance to go to another planet?” Good luck with getting that clearance in the run-up area. But we can imagine the cosmic CTAF chatter, “… landing Uranus, traffic in the area, please advise.”

Forget planetary hops for a 100-billion-dollar hamburger … this responder predicts “Intergalactic travel will be common, with vacations on many locations in our galaxy frequent.” Yodaesque syntax aside, timeshare condos among the stars are well and fine, but closer to home, “Commercial hypersonic travel will be available to most locations on Earth.” Of course, you’ll still have to go though Atlanta, but at least you’ll have help with the luggage, because “Robots will have replaced human labor, thus leaving individuals to pursue whatever interests themselves.” That can get weird in a hurry.

Cash In Those NexGen Promises

“ADS-B,” another reader predicts, “will be fully in place with clearances and route changes sent directly to the avionics via a data link from ATC. There will be fewer controllers, because computers and sophisticated traffic management algorithms will do most of the routine controlling with no human involvement.” Given that Chicago Center has yet to install a reliable sprinkler system — let alone figure out how to spell ADS-B — it’ll be interesting to see how that plays out.

This reader envisions the pilot/ATC relationship future a mere 20 years hence and predicts, “… Autonomy will be nipping at civil aviation in many forms and minimizing the amount of interaction pilots have with their aircraft.”

How?

“There will be designated corridors where the ATC computers will be 100-percent responsible for traffic spacing, sequencing …”

I’m picturing hall monitors with old Dells running Windows XP.

“… and the aircraft will be required to self-separate from other traffic. Pilots will really be monitors only and may request alternative routes but will not be allowed to deviate from autonomy unless an emergency requires immediate action to avoid threat to life.”

Not that computers flying our airplanes is a threat to life …or to NATCA (the ATC union).

Continuing with the developing Let-The-Robots-Do-It-All theme, showcased at the 1964 World’s Fair: “Advances with autonomous control will lead to increased access to the air and perhaps will not even require certified pilots. Jump in the flying buggy, set the destination and let the computers do the work.” Meaning: “Automated aircraft will rule the skies for moving cargo and people (same thing) from point A to point B.” Same reader predicts that “flying will become like sailing, a recreational activity conducted for fun using technology that’s outdated for transportation.” At least there’s fun still in our stars. Isn’t there?

Not much according to this futurist: “Aviation will be autonomous for all aircraft except in small areas of airspace where pilots can relive the old days by hand-flying a gas-powered aircraft. Of course, there will even be flight automation in the background for these old aircraft, should the pilot be unable to handle the aircraft.”

I have yet to see an iPad land a Cub in a crosswind on a grass runway. So, given this reader’s way, “Recreational flying will probably be done only in high-fidelity simulators.” Oooo, pinch me … Hi-Fi sims!

Hey, hasn’t anyone see Kubrick’s 2001: A Space Odyssey? Them robots and computers is all evil!

Something Always Springs Eternal

There’s hope for humanity — at least the pilot portion. This self-reliant flyer disagrees with the vision of a brave, new, pilotless world: “Hopefully we won’t have AliBaba.gov running things and can still fly the airplanes and no such thing as humanless airplanes flying humans around.” Now, where the hell’s my ADF and E6B?

Speaking of avionics, one reader looked upon GA’s nav/com future, saw want and ignorance, and predicted doom: “Until the requirements for avionics for certified aircraft are brought in line with experimental aircraft (read: cost), small GA is doomed.”

There it is: Doom!

“Oh, there still will be the business jets and turboprops, but not many of the four and six-seat singles will be out of their hangers.”

And, still, not many pilots will know how to spell hangar, it seems.

The Good News Drones

“The good news is,” this optimist in a sky portending doom, writes, “I think the drone controversy and want/need to use them for commerce will expose the slow-moving dinosaur of the FAA to a lot of influential people.”

Good so far, what with the dinosaur image. Do continue.

“For many years no one has really cared about aviation or the FAA …”

Now, wait one hand-proppin’ minute! Some of us care a great deal about aviation! But, please, continue.

“Most people only care about getting from point A to B. With drones, corporations, colleges, and other mass markets [themselves full of drones of different kinds — Ed. note] have the potential to open up the bottleneck and free us (pilots) from some regulation.”

This has promise. Continue …

“The FAA’s first misstep (in the drone reg wars) has been to declare they need new regulations for what, in many instances, would have been classified as model aircraft. But by taking a business-as-usual, not-until-we-say-so attitude, the FAA is going to have businesses and politicians screaming for action.”

The reader goes on at some length to suggest that, amid all this screaming, we pilots might be able to sneak in some relief from onerous regs such as the Third-class medical requirements.

Then, again, one reader writes rather succinctly: “There will be so many unregistered UAVs that it will be unsafe to fly.”

A Few Fuelish Notions

Those still brave enough to go aloft during the next 200 Brainteasers expressed concern and unbridled hope about what will power futurecraft. This note represents a commonly held belief: “Electric-propulsion airplanes powered by advanced-technology fuel cells, batteries, solar cells, hydrogen and cold-fusion nuclear reactors.”

Electric, fuel cells and such have been getting starry-eyed press for many years, but as anyone who’s kept up with Dick Tracy or Mr. Fusion from Back To The Future knows, that fusion — cold or otherwise — offers intriguing possibilities. This reader knows: “We will harness subatomic particles to provide vertical lift and maneuvering …” Cool. But who can harness such awesomeness?

Lockheed Martin — you know, the folks who bring you AFSS On Hold — are well ahead in this FusionVision thing, bringing with it what one reader warns are unintended consequences: “If Lockheed Martin gets fusion to work, what incentive will there be to produce gasoline? Never mind the even more limited avgas market or its low-lead replacement promises? We might all be grounded (from high prices).” (By the way, if Lockheed Martin wants to license the FusionVision name, I’m open to offers.)

This reader takes a more optimistic fracking view of future fuels: “There will be a glut of gasoline, no need to dilute it with ethanol, and those of us with low-compression engines can all enjoy using mogas wherever we go.” And then adds sardonically, “Yeah, right!”

And this submitter believes government is all over the possibilities: “(Given) the FAA’s history of years and years of tradition unhampered by progress, I’d say we’ll still be stuck right here.”

Still, a good portion of survey responses fit into this statement: “Not to sound too cynical, but I think general aviation will be regulated into submission.” Yeah, right?

And The Future Winner Or Loser Is …

The Third-class medical requirements garnered the most comments. No one in the survey sees any future to general aviation — or civilization in this or any galaxy — if the FAA doesn’t get rid of the Third-class medical. Comments were many, but all stewed down to: “I think that it’s high time to eliminate the Third-class medical … in the near future. It would encourage a lot to people to re-enter aviation or get started in the first place. More and happier pilots means more fuel taxes and better aviation facilities, which means more jobs.”

And no matter how far we look into the future, there isn’t a politician who can resist taxes and the four-letter word, jobs, in the same sentence. Our future is secure. Now, get up there and fly before any of this comes true.


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