Airbus Forecasts 39,210 New Aircraft Needed By 2038

Airbus expects the worldwide passenger and freighter aircraft fleet to more than double in the next twenty years, the company said in its Global Market Forecast (GMF) for 2019-2038. The 2019 annual report, titled “Cities, Airports & Aircraft,” forecasts a need for 39,210 new aircraft—25,000 to support a projected annual air traffic growth of 4.3 percent and 14,210 to replace aging models—by 2038. The GMF also anticipates 550,000 new pilots and 640,000 new technicians will be needed over the same time period.

“The 4 percent annual growth reflects the resilient nature of aviation, weathering short-term economic shocks and geopolitical disturbances,” said Airbus Chief Commercial Officer and Head of Airbus International Christian Scherer. “Economies thrive on air transportation. People and goods want to connect.”

According to Airbus, the GMF considers factors including demographic and economic growth, tourism trends, oil prices and development of new and existing routes. The 2019-2038 forecast segments operations based on aircraft capacity, range and mission type. Under that standard, of the 39,210 new aircraft projected to be needed, 29,720 will fall into the Small category (range up to 3,000 NM), 5,370 Medium (range up to 5,000 NM), and 4,120 Large (5,000+ NM range).