Expectation Bias Cited In NTSB’s Final Report On 2022 JetBlue Tail-Strike

The NTSB has concluded a JetBlue captain’s decision to take off prematurely to prevent a potential head-on collision with an opposing King Air led to a heavy tailstrike that forced an emergency diversion.

As we reported at the time, the incident occurred at Yampa Valley Airport in January of 2022. The airport does not have a control tower so pilots operating there were receiving instructions from Denver-area controllers while communicating with each other on the common traffic advisory frequency (CTAF).

The report says the JetBlue flight crew announced their intention to taxi to Runway 10 for departure. Meanwhile, a Beechcraft B300 King Air reported it was nine minutes out and planned to land on Runway 10. The King Air pilots later changed their plan, opting to land on Runway 28, reiterating the decision multiple times over the CTAF as they approached.

At 11:55 the JetBlue aircraft received clearance to take off with a specified two-minute clearance time. However, the flight crew thought the King Air was landing on Runway 10 in the same direction they were to take off. The crew’s misunderstanding led them to accelerate their departure to stay ahead of the traffic. The captain and first officer said they never saw the other aircraft and veered to the right after takeoff due to an indication from the onboard traffic alert and collision avoidance system (TCAS). The captain pitched the aircraft up 24 knots before rotation speed to avoid the King Air and subsequently struck the tail.

The final report also cited the JetBlue pilots’ expectation bias as a contributing factor, noting, “In this case, the crew’s expectation that the King Air was arriving on Runway 10, biased their perception of incoming information such that contradictory evidence (radio calls indicating the King Air was landing on Runway 28) was ignored or manipulated in the brain to be consistent with the person’s current expectation.”

The JetBlue flight reached 16,000 feet before the crew decided to divert to Denver for an inspection of the aircraft. It was grounded and other arrangements were made for the passengers, some of whom posted videos of the experience on social media.