NTSB: Turbulence Forecasts Need Improvement

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The National Weather Service needs to do a better job of forecasting low-level turbulence, which can affect GA pilots, the NTSB said in a recent Safety Recommendation (PDF). The recommendation is part of the safety board’s ongoing investigation of the crash of a Pilatus PC-12 in April 2017. The PC-12, operating as an air ambulance, crashed shortly after takeoff, killing the pilot and two crew members. In its report, the NTSB says its investigation is ongoing; however, based on its analysis of weather data, the board was concerned that low-level turbulence may have been present over Amarillo below 8,000 feet on the night of the accident, yet there were no AIRMETs active that warned of turbulence below 10,000 feet at the accident location at the accident time.

The NTSB investigators found that forecasters with the Aviation Weather Center may have “varying professional criteria” for issuing advisories for turbulence (such as AIRMETs) when convective significant meteorological information (SIGMET) advisories are active in the same region. Also, the NTSB said low-level turbulence is not adequately covered in formal training for AWC or other NWS aviation forecasters. “Although the cause of this accident is still under investigation and the role of low-level turbulence has not been specifically identified as a factor or cause, the safety risks associated with significant turbulence encounters are well known and can include serious injuries to passengers and crew,” the NTSB wrote. “Therefore, it is important that issuance of turbulence-related weather products directed to pilots be consistent and that these products address the turbulence potential at all operating altitudes.”

The NTSB recommends that the NWS should provide formal training to aviation weather forecasters on the analysis, interpretation and forecasting of low-level turbulence, and also revise its written instructions to include clear guidance on what advisories should be issued, and when.

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