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Many of today’s recommendations from the NTSB's most-wanted list for safety improvements apply to general aviation, along with other modes of transport — reducing impairment from operator fatigue and alcohol, expanding the use of recorders to help document the causes of accidents, stronger structural protection for passengers and eliminating distractions. But the board singled out GA for one most-wanted improvement, as it has for several years — loss of control. “Nearly half of all general aviation accidents are caused by loss of control in flight,” the NTSB said. “To prevent unintended departures from flight and better manage stalls, pilots need more training and a better awareness of the technologies that can help prevent these tragedies.”

Better training on how to eliminate distraction, avoid stalls and manage weather issues will put pilots in control and give them better command of their outcomes, the safety board said. The board said it based its recommendations on accident data from 2008 to 2014. The most-wanted list for safety improvements, which has traditionally been an annual event, now will extend for two years, the board said this week. The video below explains the concerns behind the NTSB's 2017-2018 most-wanted list.

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Boom Technology unveiled its XB-1 supersonic demonstrator in Denver on Tuesday, and said they aim to build the fastest-ever civilian aircraft, with a cruise speed of Mach 2.2. Boom is working with Virgin Galactic’s The Spaceship Company to build and test the XB-1. The demonstrator is “a technically representative 1/3-scale version of the production Boom airliner,” the company said. First flight for the demonstrator is expected late next year, said Blake Scholl, CEO and founder of Boom. “Sixty years after the dawn of the jet age, we’re still flying at 1960s speeds,” said Scholl. “Concorde’s designers didn’t have the technology for affordable supersonic travel, but now we do.” Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Group, said he has an option on Boom’s first 10 airplanes.

“The Spaceship Company … will provide engineering and manufacturing services, along with flight-test support and operations, as part of our shared ambitions,” Branson said. Boom’s tri-jet design features a delta wing and a tapered carbon-fiber fuselage. Unlike Concorde, the Boom design requires no afterburner, which the company says will significantly improve fuel economy. The full-size jet will carry up to 45 passengers and fly nonstop for up to 4,500 nm.

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AEA Pilots Guide to Avionics 2016-17 Edition || Aircraft Electronics Association
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Discarded wood products that otherwise would have been disposed of as waste now can be processed into a biofuel that can power jet airplanes, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said this week. On Monday, an Alaska Airlines jet flew the first commercial flight powered in part by the new commercial fuel. "In 2011, USDA awarded our largest-ever competitive research grant to the Northwest Advanced Renewables Alliance, betting on the promise that cellulose-rich, discarded wood products could be a viable renewable fuel source,” said Tom Vilsack, secretary of agriculture. “Today, we are able to celebrate the results of that investment, which is a major advancement for clean alternatives to conventional fossil fuels.”

The demonstration flight used a 20-percent blend of jet fuel made from cellulose derived from limbs and branches that typically remain on the ground after harvesting sustainably managed private forests. Cellulose, the main component of wood, is the most abundant material in nature and has long been a subject of investigation for producing sustainable biofuels, the USDA said. Alaska Airlines estimated that if it replaced 20 percent of its fuel at Sea-Tac Airport with biofuel, it would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by about 142,000 metric tons of CO2 annually. This is equivalent to taking approximately 30,000 passenger vehicles off the road for one year. The five-year, $40 million research project was funded by the USDA.

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Bliss Jet, based in New York, said on Tuesday they will start service in January between New York’s LaGuardia Airport and London’s Stansted Airport, offering seats on “shared private jets.” The company says they will offer seats on a variety of business jets, carrying 10 to 14 passengers, at a price of about $24,000 for a round-trip flight. "We are offering all the advantages of a private jet experience without the expense,” said Bliss CEO David Rimmer. Flights will depart from New York on Sunday nights, arriving in London Monday morning. Return flights depart from London on Friday afternoons. Thanks to the time change, travelers can be back in New York in time for dinner.

Rimmer says travelers can arrive at the airport just 30 minutes before departure, but the website notes that the flights are scheduled and won’t be held for latecomers. The aircraft will utilize GA terminals that are small and uncrowded compared to the airline terminals, and passengers can expect a speedy customs process.

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This primer on the Cessna 210, including turbo and pressurized models, is dedicated to mastering the art of this complex airplane. While offering some background, the book focuses instead on systems and operations. Its 11 chapters and appendix offer insight into operational issues during preflight, taxi, takeoff, climb, cruise, descent, and landing unique to each model.
Flying the Cessna 210: The Secrets Unlocked
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On a corporate flight from Utah to Southern California, Center informed us of traffic, opposite direction and above.  While flying in RVSM territory 1000 feet is plenty of clearance but still looks close.  

Learjet: Nice tie.

I guess you had to be there but it was humorous to me at the time. 


 

Michael Hollister

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In aviation, we are often steadfastly parochial in the way we try to understand the waning fortunes of the industry. We are stubbornly revanchist in viewing past glories as a template for tomorrow and we’re happy to blame FAA regulations and manufacturers who just don’t know to how to sell airplanes. While I’m sure those influences are factors, I’ve always believed there are larger forces afoot.

In this podcast with Teal Group’s Richard Aboulafia, you can hear a long-form discussion on the topic as it relates to business aircraft. But he agrees that some of the same forces affect piston sales. His deep dive into the data was done for a presentation to the National Air Transport Association this week, an organization that represents FBOs, MROs and support companies.

I found his findings illuminating. The data shows that if there ever was a recovery, it wasn’t much of one and it’s over by now. In AVweb, I’ve made it an official rule that we don’t use the word recovery. Doing so is denial of the fact that we may be in the midst of sea change in which the aircraft market takes on new characteristics that may involve lower volume.

One of those is already obvious. Aboulafia calls it the “great bifurcation” and it occurred in 2008. The bizjet market split dramatically, with aircraft costing more than $26 million showing strong growth and those under $26 million dropping off a cliff. The reasons for this are hard to know for sure, but Aboulafia thinks it’s a combination of low-end aircraft buyers—if a $26 million airplane can be called that—being discretionary users more subject to third-party financing and sensitive to business cycle changes. Less expensive airplanes also have more fractional exposure; more users, fewer airplanes. The top half tends to sell in offshore markets that remained intact and many may be head-of-state or high net worth individual airplanes.

This trend is clearly visible in light piston sales, too, albeit probably for different reasons. Repeatedly, we see that cheap airplanes don’t sell. It’s true of certified pistons and LSAs alike. There’s a value consideration related to features and cost and less expensive airplanes don’t qualify. So we should drop the futile insistence that cheaper airplanes will expand the market. If it was ever true, it’s not true now.

And anyway, bizjets are getting steadily more expensive. Aboulafia’s data shows that the value of new business aircraft is closely tied to corporate profits. But units aren’t. In 2008, profits plummeted, but the dollar value of total aircraft shipped did the opposite. Since 2010, they’ve come back into alignment. I’ve written about this perverse distortion of supply and demand previously, but it continues to be true.

Aircraft sales also reliably track global GDP. As it rises, so does the value—not the number of units—of aircraft sold. Here, the news is not good. The IMF has consistently overestimated global GDP rise and is expecting 3.5 percent into 2017. We’ll see. In the U.S., growth has averaged an anemic 2 percent or less for the past five years and the rest of the industrialized world is doing little better. During the recently concluded election cycle, some debate—or what little meaningful debate there was—centered on reducing the corporate tax to stimulate the economy. Whether this happens or not, it’s unlikely to affect aircraft sales, Aboulafia believes. Corporate profits are at record highs and many companies are swimming in cash. So for whatever reasons they aren’t buying more airplanes, lack of money is not one of them. Aboulafia thinks one possibility is that we’re simply in a lost decade and companies are trying to get over the trauma of 2008, to resume a bullish outlook at the end of the decade. This is supported by plummeting used aircraft transactions; owners and operators are keeping what they’ve got, not replacing.

But there’s another possibility. The data shows that aircraft utilization is down; companies have the airplanes, but they’re not using them as much as they once did, despite the lowest fuel costs this decade. For 2015, aircraft usage was down 11.2 percent from the 2007 peak and was similar to usage in 2002. Does this portend a shift in business culture and practices? Have businesses found some efficiencies that encourage them to travel less? Have stockholders and boards cautioned CEOs to ease up on bizjet travel?

We don’t have the information to know this. As noted, the hot part of the market is jets costing more than $26 million, but these aren’t necessarily business aircraft, but high net worth owners. And there’s some erosion there too, caused by, of all things, persistently low oil prices.  

The manufacturers seem to be betting on the top half of the market. The three leaders—Gulfstream, Bombardier and Dassault—are envisioning models even beyond the super-size large cabins they’re selling now. Cessna has the Citation Hemisphere, its largest jet ever. If it sustains, this trend has implications. It means fewer overall units, fewer jobs in the companies that build them and less business for the FBOs and MROs that service them. Lower aircraft use may also figure into the equation.

With the IMF hardly bullish on world economic growth, I wonder where aircraft fit into a popular current economic theory called secular stagnation. Basically, it posits that current slow growth is beyond the normal business cycle but rather the effect of slow population growth and lack of propelling technology, such as automobiles in the 1920s, jet aircraft and interstate highways in the 1960s and the rise of the internet in the 1990s. In the U.S., population growth is at a 65-year low.

Rising productivity has reached a temporary peak, but modern businesses have lower capital requirements and need fewer employees because of the integration of digital technology and automation. Higher productivity means many goods are cheaper than they ever have been, but take fewer jobs to produce. In this landscape, airplanes are exactly the reverse. Across the board and adjusted for inflation, they are more expensive than they have ever been, not having benefitted to the same degree in productivity gains that other products have. Manufacturers appear to sustain themselves on a higher-cost/lower-unit strategy.

If overall growth remains low, aircraft sales are likely to do the same. The next big animator in the general economy is almost certain to be increased automation and integration in everything. Unknown is what effect this will have on how companies use airplanes, but it suggests the kind of insourcing that’s been accelerating for the last five years. At some point in the not-that-distant future, autonomous vehicles of all kinds will begin to influence the equation.

With the backdrop of all this uncertainty, Aboulafia says at least the jet side of GA is still a growth industry, even if the growth is modest. He thinks there may be an uptick in orders in 2018 or 2019 as the normal replacement cycle kicks in. If there still is such a thing as normal.     

Lightspeed recently introduced its Tango noise-cancelling headset. The new product is wireless, so there's no hard connection between the headset and the panel. AVweb's Elaine Kauh gave the Tango a wring out and here's her video report.

As GAMA released another disappointing aircraft production report this week, the Teal Group’s Richard Aboulafia recently told the National Air Transportation Association that market data suggests next year won’t be much better. And although Teal says it’s “cautiously confident” that things won’t get worse, Aboulafia told us in this AVweb podcast that we’re far from the disastrous days of 2009.

Heard anything funny, unusual, or downright shocking on the radio lately? If you've been flying any length of time, you're sure to have eavesdropped on a few memorable exchanges. The ones that gave you a chuckle may do the same for your fellow AVweb readers. Share your radio funny with us, and, if we use it in a future "Short Final," we'll send you a sharp-looking AVweb hat to sport around your local airport. No joke.

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