FAA Forecast: Turbines Up, Pistons Down

The FAAs latest Aerospace Forecast offers a mixed bag for GA for the next two decades, with modest growth in the turbine sector offsetting continued erosion in the piston fleet. The agency says the long-term outlook is stable to optimistic for GA and related industries.

The FAA's latest Aerospace Forecast offers a mixed bag for GA for the next two decades, with modest growth in the turbine sector offsetting continued erosion in the piston fleet. The agency says the long-term outlook is "stable to optimistic" for GA and related industries.

The latest report, which the FAA compiles annually, predicts continued shrinkage in the largest portion of the fleet numerically—that's piston aircraft—but a tepid increase of 0.8 percent in total hours flown through 2038, the outer edge of the report's timeline. Increases in rotorcraft, turbine and experimental hours are expected to more than offset the decline in fixed-wing piston hours flown, according to the agency's estimates.

In contrast, the FAA is downright bullish on airline growth, activity and profitability. Citing the trends customers love to hate—unbundling of baggage, boarding priority, legroom upcharges—the agency notes that the airlines achieved the eighth year of profitability in 2017 and it expects more of the same going forward. "Looking forward," gushes the report, "there is confidence that U.S. airlines have finally transformed from a capital intensive, highly cyclical industry to an industry that generates solid returns on capital and sustained profits."

The forecast calls for U.S. air carrier passenger growth to average 1.9 percent during the next two decades, down a bit from the 2017 forecast. Economic trends for this growth are favorable, including low and stable oil prices and diminishing headwinds for the world economy. Although the U.S. economy has had lukewarm growth since the 2008 recession, the report says there are signs that growth is heating up.

As revenue passenger miles increase—at 2.3 percent during the forecast period—available seat miles will also grow with the rising demand. And there are more seats per aircraft, too. The forecast predicts that the number of 50-seat airplanes will decline to just a handful, replaced by fewer total aircraft but in the 70- to 90-seat range.