Analyst Sees 8900 New Bizjets By 2020
Business aviation analyst Brian Foley has taken a cue from the judging protocols of some sports competitions in determining that, overall, business jet sales will grow at 2.7 percent over the next 10 years. Foley tossed out the results of bizav's best year in recent memory (2008) and one of it's worst (2009) to come up with figures he thinks will stand up and actually mean something for those making plans for the next decade. "2009 was too unsettled and 2008 was a clear anomaly, an unsustainable peak," Foley said. "Our same numbers would yield a minus growth -2.6 percent if measured against 2008, but that's not really useful information." Foley predicts 8900 business jets worth $170 billion will be built between now and 2020. Foley has also tried to forecast bizjet fuel consumption and, if he's correct, there will be a significant increase in the use of private aviation.
Foley said he thinks he's breaking new ground with the fuel consumption forecast because he's taking into consideration aircraft numbers, utilization rates and factors like fleet modernization that dampen demand through increased efficiency. He thinks business aircraft will burn a total of 21 billion gallons of jet fuel in the coming decade and the annual consumption will reach 2.5 billion gallons in 2020, 57 percent more than was burned in 2009. Foley says both sides of the business will continue to follow the roller coaster trends that define the aviation business cycle and there will be lean periods within the decade of overall growth.