BizJet Deliveries Will Peak This Year

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Thanks to the credit crunch and a burgeoning inventory of used business jets, financial analysts are busily rewriting the fairy-tale forecast for business aviation and are predicting a steep decline in orders and deliveries over the next three years. As little as six weeks ago, the predictions were that business aviation would continue to grow through 2010 and then level out or decline modestly. But now the Montreal Gazette is reporting that independent reports by two UBS analysts, Fadi Chamoun and David Strauss, point to the market's peaking this year at 1,080 business jet deliveries followed by declining sales and order books through 2011.

The analysts said about a third of the business officials surveyed for the report said they're having trouble getting credit for purchases like aircraft, which is a sharp turnaround from conditions in early October when generally rosy forecasts were being made at the National Business Aviation Association convention. "However, over the last several weeks since NBAA, business-jet financing looks to have dried up considerably as indicated by our survey, which we believe is likely to result in a meaningful portion of the backlog being deferred," Strauss wrote.