Asia To Lead Aviation Growth: Embraer
Embraer released its annual crystal-ball summary of the commercial aviation business in advance of the Singapore Air Show and it supports what the Brazilian company and virtually all its competitors have been saying all year. Asia is the next big thing for big iron sales. “Embraer’s current forecast indicates that the aircraft demand in the region will be 25 percent higher than the previous estimates. The Asia Pacific region and China will represent 17 percent of worldwide aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years,” the report says. China, in particular, will see growth rates much higher than the rest of the world. But Embraer says there’s a serious imbalance, equipment-wise, in the emerging market because most airlines have purchased big, high-capacity airliners while the regional market is under-served. Market forces, it predicts, will lead to a boom in orders for 30- to 120-seat airliners, a sector almost exclusively served by Embraer and Bombardier. The report predicts that at least 1,270 aircraft in this size range, worth $42 billion, will be delivered in the region over the next 20 years. The company says the largest demand will be for aircraft with fewer than 90 seats. Bombardier and Embraer can’t expect to have the market to themselves for long, however. China is developing its own modern version of the DC-9 called the ARJ21-700 and Sukhoi is planning a 75- to 95-seat airliner called the Superjet. Engine tests have been completed on the Superjet and it may fly this month. Bombardier also wants to get into the market for aircraft with more than 100 seats and is in talks with China’s AVIC to collaborate on the project.